Search results matching tag 'Galveston'

Back on the weather roller-coaster?

Stan Blazyk — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:49:00 GMT

After a period of rapidly changing weather, with conditions swinging quickly from rainy and warm to sunny and cool, Galveston experienced a week of near ideal weather. Unfortunately, this spell finally ended as a cold front pushed through the area on Monday, bringing a brief round of showers followed by some of the coolest weather of the season so far.

The front heralded more than just a strong cool front. It marks a shift back to a pattern of rapid weather changes. Although we now have cool, sunny autumn weather in place our weather will be very different by the end of this week and we can look forward to more rapid changes next week.

The first big change will be an upper-level low and trough that will move in from the west. At the same time, a surface low will develop along the Texas coast and move east or northeast. This should bring some rainy, windy weather to Galveston by Friday. There is a chance of some heavy rain as well, but that depends on the exact location and track of the low.

But, if you don't like that weather, just wait a little while. Conditions should improve for the weekend as high pressure and slightly cooler weather returns. As with all good things, this return to nice weather may be brief again as yet another system moves into the region and rain propects increase ahead of a new cool front.

As they say: "If you don't like the weather, just wait a little while".

Below is a surface forecast map for Friday, showing the surface low along the Texas coast.

Current rainfall projections show the most rainfall with this system located along the mid and upper-Texas coast:

This map shows another cool front moving through early next week:

Lofts Tour Today & Tomorrow

Galveston.com — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 13:57:47 GMT

Don't miss the annual Galveston Island Lofts Tour, November 14th & 15th, 10am to 5pm.

Advance tickets and details here.

Will Hurricane Ida and disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche impact us?

Stan Blazyk — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:07:00 GMT

I've had a number of people ask me these questions over the past couple of days, especially after they have listened to some of the more sensationlistic reports that have surfaced since Ida first developed into a tropical depression.

To "cut to the chase": 1. It is unlikely that Ida will directly impact our weather and even more unlikely that we would see any tropical activity associated with it along the upper-Texas coast; and 2. Yes, the disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche may lead to some stormy weather by Sunday or Monday, but will probably not be tropical in nature.

Here is my take on what is happening and likely to happen in the tropics over the coming week. Yes, Ida....or the remnants of Ida, quite likely will enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. And, yes, a fairly decent low pressure center may spin up in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or so. It fact, the low, a steep pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge centered over the eastern U.S, and an astronomical high tide, could bring high tides (I would not be totally surprised to see levels running 3 or more feet above normal by Sunday or Monday). We may also see fairly stiff easterly winds and have a decent chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

But, at this point in time the system in the Gulf is expected to remain non-tropical (extra-tropical is the precise term) at this point in time. In that sense, it will not be much different than other cold season Gulf lows and probably somewhat typical of what we are almost certain to see again this winter with an El Niño pattern in place.

There is some chance that the low "could" acquire tropical characteristics and maybe even become a "sub-tropical" storm before moving towards the Louisiana coast. But, this isn't expected to happen at this time and would probably make very little difference in what weather we would be likely to see as a result of the system. High wind shear levels and water temperatures in the 70's will tend to inhibit such development.

As for Hurricane Ida, the current thinking is that the storm will be greatly weakened by its movement over Nicaragua and Honduras. It may re-intensify some as it re-emerges into the northwest Caribbean, but redevelopment of a system is a slow and questionable process even when conditions are ideal. They should not be ideal for Ida or its remnants. Right now the best guess is that Ida will either become a sub-tropical storm or a non-tropical low and eventually be swept northeast towards Florida, after an initial turn towards the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Given projected wind shear levels over the Gulf of Mexico next week, it is difficult to see much more development than that.

To put this in perspective, we "could" see some tropical weather over the coming seven days, though the odds are against any true tropical storm or hurricane activity in our area. Quite probably will see stormy weather by Sunday or Monday and, in the parlance of forecasters, some "interesting" weather, but certainly nothing at all like some of the dire scenarios that have been tossed around the past couple of days.

Below are some graphics that will help to clarify our weather prospects over the coming week or so.

The first is a model array depicting long-term track possibilites for Ida, or the remnants of Ida:

Next is a link to wind shear levels and tendencies (courtesy of the University of Wisconsin):

Finally, here is a surface weather forecast map for this weekend:

Sunny cool weather is nice, but will it last?

Stan Blazyk — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:36:00 GMT

Galveston is on track to have its second consecutive sunny, cool weekend in a row. Those of us who love this kind of fall weather are deligthed, especially after the heavy rains this week.

Unfortunately, it appears as though our tantalizing touch of fall will be brief, indeed.

Clouds and milder temperatures should begin returning by Sunday, as winds swing back around to the south ahead of another cool front. This front, which should reach the coast, by Monday will be fairly weak, but it may set off yet another round of showers and thunderstorms (though not as widespread or as heavy as the rain on Thursday). It should also be enough to give us a return to sunny, cool conditions, though the temperatures will not be as cool as with this current front.

Looking further down the road, temperatures and humidity levels should rise rather dramatically as we head into the later part of this coming week. Unfortuanately, yet another round of rain may be in the picture by late next week or early next weekend, ahead of a cool front. Certainly, if you like changeable weather, then the outlook for the next seven days should fit your needs exactly!

Below is the rainfall forecast for Monday:

This map shows the rainfall outlook for the end of next week:

Goodbye to the hurricane season?

Stan Blazyk — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:05:00 GMT

Friday (October 16) marks the 20th anniversary of the latest hurricane ever to strike the upper-Texas coast and Saturday (October 17) marks the date of the latest tropical storm ever to hit the area. Since reliable record-keeping began in 1837, no tropical storm or hurricane has come close enough to have any real impact on Galveston Island after October 17. So, climatologically speaking, we should be in pretty good shape, tropical weather wise, as we enjoy a mostly sunny, cool weekend.

Of course, records are made to be broken and I am sure that over the very long run, some storm will make its way into our area at a later date on the calendar. But, the chances of that happening in any given year are exceedingly low, based upon the record and the usual weather patterns we see in late October and November.

Even better, the weather patterns this year are even less favorable than usual for tropical storm or hurricane development. Without putting a jinx on us, I would venture to say that it is increasingly likely that we can put this season behind us....at least as far as the northwest Gulf of Mexico goes.

Looking at current weather patterns, we see several things. One, high wind shear across the Atlantic and along the northern Gulf Coast. Dry air pushing south into the tropics and a strong cold front that should push all the way south to the Yucatan and northwest Caribbean, allowing even more dry air to settle in over the Gulf of Mexico. If this pattern continues, then the chances for any significant tropical development will remain slim to none.

This map (courtesy of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) shows the latest wind shear levels and tendencies. Wind shear, which is unfavorable for tropical development, is high and increasing from the Caribbean east to the African coast;

Meanwhile, forecast maps push this weekend's cool front deep into the Gulf of Mexico:

Meanwhile, dry air (the green and blue hues) continues to infiltrate deep into the tropics

Refer your contractors or company!!!

melissacon — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:56:17 GMT

Have you had a good experience with a contractor? Or have a company that does work in the Galveston Area?

If you specialize, or had a good experience, in any of the following areas, please send me the/your contact information!

*Decking *Fencing *Tile *Beams *Framer *Concrete *Demolition *Handyman *Paint *Drywall *Siding *Roofing *Electrician *HVAC (Air Conditioning) *Cabinetry *Re-Model *Cleaning Crew *Other

I would love to hear the experience you have had with a company, or learn about your personal company!

Remodeling The Island - Slow but Positive Results

UpTwoBucks — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 23:10:12 GMT

My family has been in the home remodeling business on the island since hurricane Carla in the 60's. Ths Island always bounces back, no matter what happens. We've seen distruction many times throughout the years. The problem with rebuilding the island this time is that funding has been slowed by the recession. It is effecting everyone, not just Galveston. We have worked hurricanes along the coast such as Katrina, Ivan, Dennis and now Ike. To bad Ike hit during a recession. Just hang in there, this Island will come back to it's normal state soon.

Never Give Up, just give!

Uptwobucks
http://www.buildorrepair.com

One cool front--two scenarios

Stan Blazyk — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:35:00 GMT

It seems fairly certain that we will greet autumn with a cool front moving into the area....at least as certain as things get, weather-wise. It also appears probable that we will get some rain along with the front. The big question is whether we get some rain, followed by drying or get another round of prolonged rainfall. If the models are any clue, then it is about a toss-up which way our weather will trend next week.

Some models send the cool front fairly far off-shore. This would allow more dry air to move in behind the front and limit rainfall to some extent. Other models have the front stall fairly close to the Texas coast, setting up a scenario where prolonged rainfall will be possible, if not probable.

What we should have for sure is a fairly potent upper-level low dropping into the the southern Plains. Not unlike the mid and upper-low now now exiting Texas, it will have the potential to destablilize the atmosphere. If the front stalls close to the coast, warm air overruning the shallow, cool air at the surface will provide an extra ingredient to keep clouds and rain around for much of next week. At this point is is a little too far out to see if this will be how the weather actually unfolds. In any case, the weather next week will probably seem appropriate for the first week of autumn.

Below is a surface forecast map, showing one the cool front by the middle of next week. Below that is an upper-level forecast map, showing the expected upper-level low and trough.

Looking ahead at our late September weather

Stan Blazyk — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:14:00 GMT

The fairly nice weather we've had lately is getting some folks in the mood for Fall: You know, cool fronts, lower humidity levels and a gradual disappearance of the hot, muggy weather than can seem endless at the height of summer. It certainly doesn't hurt either that a good cool front or two would serve to dramatically decrease the hurricane threat for this area.

Unfortunately, we should see temperatures begin to creep back up over the coming week or so, though they shouldn't get back to the levels we had in August. In the longer term, however, the outlook is quite positive. Forecasters are suggesting that the last part of September may bring us below normal temperatures and near normal to slightly below normal rainfall. In other words, we may have a decent cool front or two slip into our area before the end of the month.

At any rate, with a little luck, we may be in for an early (for our area) autumn with the kind of weather that can make Galveston such a pleasant place to be in late September and October.

Below is the latest temperature outlook for the period from September 20-24 (cooler than normal areas are highlighted in blue):

Also, we have the temperature outlook for the period from September 22-28:

What a difference a year makes

Stan Blazyk — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 15:16:00 GMT

Looking at the weather across the Tropical Atlantic Basin today (September 5) and comparing it with what was happening a year ago on this day, one cannot help but be struck by the contrast. Last year, calm upper-level winds (meaning low wind shear) and a large high pressure system provided a near perfect environment for hurricances. And if we look at a satellite map of that day (see link): http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_ir/0809/08090500.gif we can see a well-formed and dangerous Hurricane Ike, north of the Windward islands. There was still some hope that Ike would stay far enough north to elude us, but high pressure building west to the north of the storm meant that the storm would ulitmately be pushed west into the Texas coast.

By contrast, this year we see a band of strong wind shear stretching across the Atlantic from Texas, through the northern Caribbean and then eastward across the Atlantic. This really puts a damper on hurricane development (map courtesy of the University of Wisconsin);

In addition, a prong of relatively dry, stable (depicted by the blue and green hues) air is flowing into the central Atlantic. This, again, provides a less than favorable enviroment for tropical storm development:

Finally, a persistent low pressure trough across the eastern third of the U.S. has meant that what tropical systems do manage to develop have generally turned north, rather than tracking west into the Gulf of Mexico:

Now none of this means that we won't still get a storm this year, but overall the pattern has certainly been better than it was last year!