I've had a number of people ask me these questions over the past couple of days, especially after they have listened to some of the more sensationlistic reports that have surfaced since Ida first developed into a tropical depression.

To "cut to the chase": 1. It is unlikely that Ida will directly impact our weather and even more unlikely that we would see any tropical activity associated with it along the upper-Texas coast; and 2. Yes, the disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche may lead to some stormy weather by Sunday or Monday, but will probably not be tropical in nature.

Here is my take on what is happening and likely to happen in the tropics over the coming week. Yes, Ida....or the remnants of Ida, quite likely will enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. And, yes, a fairly decent low pressure center may spin up in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or so. It fact, the low, a steep pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge centered over the eastern U.S, and an astronomical high tide, could bring high tides (I would not be totally surprised to see levels running 3 or more feet above normal by Sunday or Monday). We may also see fairly stiff easterly winds and have a decent chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

But, at this point in time the system in the Gulf is expected to remain non-tropical (extra-tropical is the precise term) at this point in time. In that sense, it will not be much different than other cold season Gulf lows and probably somewhat typical of what we are almost certain to see again this winter with an El Niño pattern in place.

There is some chance that the low "could" acquire tropical characteristics and maybe even become a "sub-tropical" storm before moving towards the Louisiana coast. But, this isn't expected to happen at this time and would probably make very little difference in what weather we would be likely to see as a result of the system. High wind shear levels and water temperatures in the 70's will tend to inhibit such development.

As for Hurricane Ida, the current thinking is that the storm will be greatly weakened by its movement over Nicaragua and Honduras. It may re-intensify some as it re-emerges into the northwest Caribbean, but redevelopment of a system is a slow and questionable process even when conditions are ideal. They should not be ideal for Ida or its remnants. Right now the best guess is that Ida will either become a sub-tropical storm or a non-tropical low and eventually be swept northeast towards Florida, after an initial turn towards the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Given projected wind shear levels over the Gulf of Mexico next week, it is difficult to see much more development than that.

To put this in perspective, we "could" see some tropical weather over the coming seven days, though the odds are against any true tropical storm or hurricane activity in our area. Quite probably will see stormy weather by Sunday or Monday and, in the parlance of forecasters, some "interesting" weather, but certainly nothing at all like some of the dire scenarios that have been tossed around the past couple of days.

Below are some graphics that will help to clarify our weather prospects over the coming week or so.

The first is a model array depicting long-term track possibilites for Ida, or the remnants of Ida:

Next is a link to wind shear levels and tendencies (courtesy of the University of Wisconsin):

Finally, here is a surface weather forecast map for this weekend: