If the Climate Prediction Center is correct in its long-term assessment, the drought that has persisted through October should continue through the end of January at least. And, although temperatures in October have been fairly close to normal, we can expect warmer than normal conditions here on the island from November 1 through the end of January.

One of the main culprits is an ongoing atmopsheric circulation over the western and central tropical pacific that reflects the lingering aspects of La NIna. La Nina episodes (associated with cooler than normal water temperatures over the Pacific) are generally related to dry conditions across the south and southwest. Although, the atmospheric and sea circulation has shifted over the past few months to what is called an ENSO neutral condition (neither strongly showing a La Nina nor El Nino weather pattern), the change has not been enough to break the generally dry pattern that started in early 2008.

I know that many Islanders have been hoping for some good rains to help restore some of our damaged trees and vegetation and the overall pattern does not rule out an occasional heavy rain event or two over the winter months. Still, we seem destined to see less rain than normal through most of the winter.

Below are the November-January temperature and precipitation forecast maps, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center: